Indonesia's GDP Could Rise by 4.1% with Reduction of Non-Tariff Barriers

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report highlights that with ambitious trade liberalization and structural reforms, Indonesia has the potential to achieve a GDP growth of 4.1% in the medium to long term. This projection is detailed in the “Golden Vision 2045: Reaping the Gains from Trade” report released in February 2026. The IMF views deeper trade integration with regional and global partners as crucial for Indonesia’s aspiration to become a high-income country by 2045. Although net export contributions to growth have been limited over recent years, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) remain relatively high compared to other countries, despite a gradual reduction in import tariffs. Reducing NTBs can have a significant impact on the economy, as highlighted by World Bank simulations in 2023. According to these simulations, eliminating four major obstacles could potentially boost GDP by 5%. These changes can enhance domestic company productivity and encourage resource reallocation in sectors with comparative advantages. In addition to domestic reforms, it is crucial to strengthen trade agreements with major partners like ASEAN, the EU, the US, and China.