Professor Predicts Rupiah Weakening Until End of 2026

Professor Rahma Gafmi from Airlangga University has made a rather serious prediction regarding the Indonesian rupiah (IDR). According to his research, by the end of 2026, the rupiah could reach a historical low of 20,000 per US dollar. The primary factors influencing this depreciation are both external and internal challenges related to macroeconomic instability.

Generally speaking, the weakening of the rupiah is not a surprise. Recent years have seen the Indonesian economy under pressure due to increased national debt, inflation, and global economic challenges. The current situation calls for swift and strategic interventions by the government to prevent further devaluation of the national currency.

Dr. Gafmi pointed out that the stability of the rupiah requires sustainable investment and economic growth, both of which have been challenging to achieve recently. Key measures that could help stabilize the situation include reforms in the financial sector and support for small and medium-sized enterprises, leading to more sustainable economic growth.

For governmental bodies, creating a favorable environment for investors is vital. Investments in infrastructure and improvements in the legal framework capable of retaining foreign and local investors will be important to prevent further weakening of the rupiah.

Global market issues also have an impact. The global macroeconomic environment remains unstable and has serious consequences for countries like Indonesia, which heavily rely on exports. Headlines worldwide talk about heightened tariffs, economic sanctions, and other geopolitical factors impacting currency rates.

Global financial institutions such as the IMF have already warned the Indonesian government about the importance of financial stability. Transparency in government actions and solving domestic economic problems must become priority tasks for the President’s administration in the coming years.

Are measures being taken? The government has stated that it is aware of these challenges and plans to develop more sustainable monetary policy and build market confidence. Measures under consideration include increasing foreign currency reserves and regulating imports to balance the payment balance and reduce pressure on the rupiah.

All these measures can help to cushion the blow from external threats and regulate the exchange rate more steadily. A long and challenging path of stabilizing regional and global economic environments lies ahead.