Assessing the Impact of Global Sentiments on IHSG Movement in Q1-2026

Entering the first quarter of 2026, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is once again ensnared in a web of complex global dynamics. No longer can it be fully explained by domestic factors such as economic growth, inflation, or corporate performance; rather, global changes are becoming increasingly significant. This quarter is marked by unique monetary policy shifts among major economies, geopolitical uncertainty, and the overarching state of the global economy, all of which influence global investors’ risk perceptions—including those pertaining to the IHSG. Global monetary policy, steered by major central banks like the US Federal Reserve, imposes significant pressure on emerging markets, including Indonesia. The potential for prolonged high interest rates can drive investors back to dollar-denominated assets, potentially causing capital outflows from the Indonesian market. However, positive signals indicating a potential interest rate cut may spark renewed interest in local assets. Global economic conditions also play a role: with growth slowdowns and economic instability heightening investment risks, impacting Indonesia’s export-driven sectors. The export-related sectors may face pressures, but domestic stability can act as a counterbalance. Geopolitics often introduces abrupt waves of uncertainty, influencing investor preferences and causing temporary IHSG weakening. Nevertheless, once uncertainty diminishes, economic fundamentals regain focus. Finally, as a resource-rich nation, Indonesia is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity prices, affecting the energy and mining sectors and, subsequently, the overall index.